Expected Move Calculator
The expected move is the price range the options market implies for a stock by a given date. From implied volatility, one standard deviation equals price times IV times the square root of days over 365, which covers about 68% of outcomes. You can also estimate it as roughly 0.85 times the at-the-money straddle.
From implied volatility
From the ATM straddle
Uses the stock price from the left panel.
For education only, not financial advice. Read the disclaimer.
HOW IT WORKS
From implied volatility: 1 sd move = S x IV x sqrt(days / 365), using calendar days. Under a normal distribution about 68% of outcomes land within 1 standard deviation and about 95% within 2.
From the straddle: move = 0.85 x (ATM call + ATM put). This is a common trader convention, not an exact identity. Under Black-Scholes the at-the-money straddle is close to the average absolute move (about 0.8 times the 1 sd move), so 0.85 x straddle gives a tighter range than the IV method. Use the straddle for the expiry you care about, at the strike nearest the stock price.