Trends, pullbacks & ranges
Trading with structure: continuation vs reversal, and knowing which regime you're in.
Pullback or reversal?
Every trend breathes. The question that decides most trades is whether a move against the trend is a pullback (structure intact — the prior swing low holds in an uptrend) or a reversal (structure broken — a higher low fails and price takes out the last swing low). Until structure breaks, the trend deserves the benefit of the doubt.
| Healthy pullback | Likely reversal | |
|---|---|---|
| Prior swing | holds | breaks |
| Counter-move character | slow, overlapping bars, thin volume | fast, wide bars, expanding volume |
| Retracement depth | shallow-to-half of the last leg | swallows the entire leg |
| Response at support | buyers step in quickly | bounces are weak and sold |
Trading the range honestly
In a range, the edges are the trade: fade the extremes, take profit at the middle or opposite side, and keep stops outside the range where the real breakout would prove you wrong. The middle of a range is where the auction is fairest — and where entries have the least edge. Note the rhyme with positive-gamma regimes: pinned markets are range markets, and the same fade playbook applies.